24 Australian Grand Prix preview – Catch me if you can

Hopes that Ferrari, Mercedes and maybe even McLaren would catch up with Red Bull this year, on the third season of the current set of technical regulations, have been seriously hit by the way Max Verstappen and the Austrian team dominated proceedings in Bahrain and, with even bigger authority, in Saudi Arabia.

While in Bahrain there was the distinct possibility Charles Leclerc would snatch pole position from the Dutchman, before the final set of tyres frustrated his chances, one week later, at the faster Jeddah track, the 0.3s gap between the two was a true reflection of the balance of forces at the front of the field.

The maximum Leclerc has been able to do, so far this season, is to split the two Red Bulls in qualifying, but even the feisty Monegasque has no answer for the RB20’s race pace, which is why Sérgio Pérez finished second in both the Middle Eastern races and arrives in Melbourne eight points ahead of the Ferrari driver.

But it’s also true that Ferrari’s night races were both compromised by unusual circumstances – meaning we are yet to see the full potential of the 2024 Scuderia on race day.

In Bahrain there was an issue with the right-front brake disc of Leclerc’s car, right from the start of the race, so he dropped behind Pérez, Russell and Sainz before making a small recovery to beat the British driver for P4.

That issue left Sainz alone in the battle against Pérez, the Spaniard ending up running out of laps to catch his rival, as the tyre advantage was swinging Sainz’s way.

And it was Sainz’s forced withdrewal from Jeddah that hampered the Scuderia’s efforts on race day. For all the great performance rookie Oliver Bearman displayed, it’s obvious Ferrari would have been stronger in Saudi Arabia if the Spanish driver was in his car, given his level of experience and the good form he showed one week before. 

With Sainz starting from the second row of the grid, Pérez would have been alone against the two red cars, the Scuderia could have made a gamble with the start tyre choice or during the Safety Car period, and that could have made all the difference.

Having said that, two other facts must be stated: one, even if Ferrari had been firing on all cylinders, Leclerc and Sainz had no chance to seriously fight with Verstappen in the first two races of the season; two, it’s highly unlikely the Dutchman has even shown his full hand, as he hasn’t had the need to push to the limit and may have a handful of tenths under his right foot to use only when needed.

Only on his first lap on new tyres in Bahrain, after the pit stop, did we get a glimpse of what the RB20 can do in Verstappen’s hands, as he was 1.4s quicker than anyone managed during the night race and that was a ominous sign …

In fact, there are quite a few senior citizens within the Formula 1 community that believe the only way the Dutchman and Red Bull can be stopped is if the current internal war for ultimate power between Christian Horner and the Austrian side of the operations leads to an astonishing implosion at management level – with maybe an eventual departure by Horner, Newey or even Marko destabilising the whole team!

ALL HOPES ON FERRARI

Charles Leclerc pushed his way to a podium at the Jeddah Street Circuit. Photo by Andy Hone / LAT Images

Nevertheless it’s clear Ferrari has made a good step forward compared to this time last year and has left Mercedes, McLaren and Aston Martin behind, pulling away from the group where it was battling until the end of 2023. 

In fact, the Scuderia is the closests thing Red Bull has to a direct rival and there’s a quiet confidence at Maranello that it’s just a matter of time before Leclerc and Sainz can start putting real pressure on Verstappen.

That may well happen, as the technical structure Frédéric Vasseur has put in place in the last 14 months is getting into its stride and, judging by the big progress made during the 2023 season, the team seems to know how to develop a car and cut the gap to Red Bull – the RB20 is, hopefully for the competition, closer to its limit than the SF-24.

Even if the gap for Red Bull is still significant, particularly in race pace, there’s no doubt Ferrari has made big strides also in the way the races are prepared, the strategies and pit stops are executed, as Vasseur is leaving no stone unturned and has been pushing for serious progress in all areas that can affect performance.

MERCEDES AND COSTUMERS WITH WORK TO DO

Lewis Hamilton will race for Mercedes for the final time in Australia. Photo by Steve Etherington / LAT Images

I have to confess I was expecting Mercedes to start this 2024 season in a much more competitive way, battling it out with Ferrari and taking the fight to, at least, Sérgio Pérez.

For now my faith on James Allison’s ability to turn things around quickly may have been a bit misplaced. While the W15 was the third-quickest car in Bahrain, it was slower than McLaren and the best driver Aston Martin in Saudi Arabia, so there’s serious work to be done back at Brackley, to move George Russell and a surprisingly subdued Lewis Hamilton towards the front of the field.

McLaren arrives in Melbourne sitting third in the Constructors’ Championship but the true pace of the MCL38 has been difficult to read.

In Bahrain both Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris owned up to making costly mistakes in Q3 and then didn’t really have the race pace to move forward on Saturday night.

Things were a bit more encouraging one week later in Jeddah, but the qualifying pace wasn’t really there and, in the race, the lack of straightline speed cost a lot of time for Piastri (stuck behind Hamilton for half the race) and never allowed Norris to get even within DRS reach of Bearman in the final five laps.

As for Aston Martin, even more than last year, it’s the only one-car team in the field …  While Fernando Alonso is extracting absolutely everything from the AMR24, qualifying sixth and fouth in the first two races, Lance Stroll’s deficit for the Spaniard has grown to over half a second per lap in qualifying.

The veteran’s Q3 efforts have been spectacular but in the races his car doesn’t seem to be able to keep that same level of performance, so the pace drops a bit.

That was very obvious in Bahrain, where Alonso finished only ninth, but less so in Jeddah – a track where the team also did very well last year – as the veteran was able to hold on to P5 in spite of Russell’s pressure.

A CLEAR DIVIDE

With Alpine dramatically dropping down the order, leaving 2023 clearly with the sixth quickest car but now lagging at the back of the field as the A524’s initial version had to be rushed, due to a serious issue with the original project, the gap between the top five teams and the rest has grown so much, there’s a clear divide between the two halves of the grid. 

In fact, it’s only because Stroll is not performing at a reasonable level that the best of the rest has any hopes of scoring points.

In this battle for survival, Yuki Tsunoda and Nico Hulkenberg have emerged as the most consistent performers, with Alex Albon close behind, but the gaps are so small that you can be 11th one day and 19th the next, depending on how closerto maximising the performance of your car you got.

Back for his first full Formula 1 season since 2022, Daniel Ricciardo has struggled quite a bit more than expected, as Tsunoda has outqualifed him twice and deserved to be in the points in Jeddah, where Magnussen’s antics worked against him.

CAN WE GET A SURPRISE?

With the Formula 1 community already in town, what can the Australian fans expect from next weekend’s Grand Prix?

On paper, it’s hard to see anyone challenging Verstappen and Red Bull around the Albert Park track but, as they say, races are run on tarmac, not on paper, so there’s always the chance of the dominating team getting things slightly wrong – like in Singapore six months ago, and Ferrari, for example, getting it spot on.

With Carlos Sainz likely to be back in his car, this could be the first real match between the two fastest cars of the year, and Melbourne being a track that doesn’t forgive the slightest mistake, we could get an interesting Sunday afternoon battle, especially if Mercedes, McLaren and Fernando Alonso also get close to the battle at the front. 

Here’s hoping! 

The race will be broadcast on both Fox Sports and Channel 10.

2024 Australian Grand Prix schedule (AEDT)

Friday, March 22

Practice 1: 12.30-13.30

Practice 2: 16.00-17.00

Saturday, March 23

Practice 3: 12.30-13.30

Qualifying: 16.00-17.00

Sunday, March 24

Grand Prix: 15.00

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